Fewer babies, less land spell enrollment drop
Brick's high cost of housing also a factor, expert says
BY DANIELLE MEDINA Correspondent
Enrollment at Brick's schools is expected to decline about 12 percent over the next four years if current population trends continue, according to a new study recently released by the Board of Education.

By the 2011-12 school year, the school district is projected to have 9,409 students, down 1303 students from the 10,712 students enrolled this year.

Richard S. Grip of Statistical Forecasting, Secaucus, called the drop in the district's student population "pretty significant," in an Oct. 18 presentation to the board.

Since 2004-05, the enrollment at Brick's schools has been declining at a rate of about two percent each year. The district had a relatively stable student population in the three years prior to 2004-2005.

"We assume that the trend that is the most recent in the district will hold true in the future," Grip said.

Grip collected and analyzed data on population trends in the township since 1970; the historical enrollment of Brick's schools over the last six years; birth rates in Brick since 1996; and housing data.

The main reason for the district's projected enrollment drop is due to a decline in the township birth rate that will eventually produce smaller kindergarten classes, Grip said.

The birth rate has been steadily declining since 2003, when there were 905 births in Brick. In 2006, there were 786 births in the township, he said.

Therefore, as these children advance through the school system, their class sizes are significantly smaller than the upper grades that will be graduating from the district. That will lead to an overall enrollment decline at all levels - pre-kindergarten and kindergarten, grades 1-5, grades 6-8 and grades 9-12, Grip said.

Also, there are no large-scale housing subdivisions planned and Brick's lack of available land will limit future housing growth, he said.

Grip also pointed out that the rise in the median home price from $136,800 in 2000 to $322,500 in 2006 also has an impact on the declining student population.

"At one point, this might have been a starter family district, but not anymore, with home prices where they are," Grip said.

Board President Brian DeLuca said that although the district is looking at a smaller student body, no schools will be closing.

"We won't have any empty buildings," DeLuca said.

The district will look at other ways of filling the classrooms. Instituting a fullday kindergarten program; returning special education students who currently attend school outside the district; reallocating classrooms; and realigning the district are just some of the options, he said.

It costs the district upwards of $39,000 per student plus transportation costs to send kids to private schools outside the district, as compared to about $10,000 for the same services in district, DeLuca said.

"It's in our best interest and the interest of the kids, who would be able to participate in after-school activities and programs, to keep them in district," he said. "The only reason we can't do that now is because we don't have the space."

The demographic study will be an important tool that will be used by the district's strategic planning committee, DeLuca said.

Interim Superintendent Melindo A. Persi said that $6,500 price tag for the demographic study will be shared with the Township Council, who will pay $1,500 of the cost.

Statistical Forecasting is an educational consulting firm that has performed demographic studies for approximately 50 New Jersey school districts and New York City public schools.